Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5805d9ed3d27a6d694e3e028c1023569d3bd5ceea4444ef6098b65f281e31d7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,475 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 40c | 9,579$3,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,831.6 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 8,395$5,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,373.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,720$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 453.79$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 278.97$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 41c | 243.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 61c | 122.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 61c | 109.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 41c | 82.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 38c | 58.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 60c | 57.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Over | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 63c | 43.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Over | 39c | 38.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 43c | 35.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 62c | 28.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 63c | 25.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 57c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.