World Politics · resolved market
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x582fe5744a7b2fe6e62d40fd377d5669fa3713f1878c8801103078e7647d9e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 5,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2539backed Yes | 2c | 4,206$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…4c04backed Yes | 3c | 3,611$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…70eebacked Yes | 2c | 3,134$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…4701backed Yes | 2c | 2,994$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…d11fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,741$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…6b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,266$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…a09ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,206$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…3262backed Yes | 3c | 2,192$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…d063backed Yes | 2c | 2,074$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…960abacked Yes | 3c | 1,986$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…d697backed Yes | 3c | 1,868$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…1d17backed Yes | 2c | 1,678$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…b2c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,639$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…4af7backed Yes | 2c | 1,639$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…1e49backed Yes | 1c | 1,330$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8517…15f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,298$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff9…0c14backed Yes | 3c | 1,257$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b4…6ca7backed Yes | 1c | 1,171$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b2…f2c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcead…468dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,074$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dab…7227backed Yes | 2c | 966$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6657…a1dbbacked Yes | 2c | 922$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9695…30f3backed Yes | 2c | 882$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…7a46backed Yes | 3c | 805$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…0d4abacked Yes | 2c | 765$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…3f13backed Yes | 2c | 673$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…d928backed Yes | 2c | 564$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…8cb2backed Yes | 2c | 548$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…3c83backed Yes | 2c | 534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…42b7backed Yes | 3c | 514$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?this page
- Will Bae June-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No won
- Will Chung Il-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No won
- Will Kim Kyo-heung win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No won
- Will Lee Hak-jae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No won
- Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No won
- Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No won
- Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.