Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Vacherot
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5836f6b166a13ca877b26094d41376e05e426d98e468d79cdd523b74348d204e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vacherotof Musetti, Vacherot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vacherot | 18c | 685.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.79 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Vacherot | 39c | 397.71$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.88 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed Musetti | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked Musetti | 62c | 164.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Vacherot | 18c | 142.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.89 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Vacherot | 40c | 109.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Vacherot | 53c | 75.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…178abacked Musetti | 54c | 72.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Musetti | 53c | 65.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vacherot | 49c | 63.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Musetti | 52c | 47.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Musetti | 48c | 47.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 405 | 48.1%195 W · 210 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Vacherot | 39c | 44.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Vacherot | 53c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Vacherot | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Musetti | 62c | 39.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…acb7backed Musetti | 55c | 34.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Musetti | 45c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed Musetti | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 306 | 53.3%163 W · 143 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…892fbacked Vacherot | 62c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Vacherotthis page
- Lorenzo Musetti vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Musetti vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin VacherotValentin Vacherot won
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)Vacherot won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.