Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ce2014ea5228f8d3d806af1735c1ba784b452181e2b261a01a0f79afc1db40f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vacherotof Musetti, Vacherot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Musetti | 45c | 2,554$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.76 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Vacherot | 66c | 2,395$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.17 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Musetti | 38c | 2,358$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.47 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Vacherot | 62c | 790.75$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Musetti | 37c | 600$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Musetti | 38c | 416.16$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Vacherot | 61c | 320.18$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Musetti | 35c | 318.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vacherot | 53c | 275.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.65 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…dc82backed Vacherot | 61c | 241$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Musetti | 18c | 208.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…5b62backed Vacherot | 62c | 173.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Musetti | 38c | 132.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Musetti | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Musetti | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Musetti | 43c | 89.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Musetti | 41c | 87.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Musetti | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Vacherot | 61c | 68.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Vacherot | 67c | 67.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Vacherot | 61c | 64.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Musetti | 21c | 62.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Musetti | 47c | 61.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 185 | 59.5%110 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Musetti | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Musetti | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Musetti | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Musetti | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Musetti | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33f…159cbacked Musetti | 38c | 46.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Vacherot | 62c | 39.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…8a75backed Vacherot | 62c | 39.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Musetti | 39c | 32.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Vacherot | 61c | 20.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Vacherot | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…ff67backed Vacherot | 60c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Vacherot | 58c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Vacherot | 61c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)this page
- Lorenzo Musetti vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Musetti vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin VacherotValentin Vacherot won
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs VacherotVacherot won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.