South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5848196004d46a4a4ab18c9eef2bfe6e9c8ddb6b4c8e66c9dc41aae8a6204f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked Yes | 53c | 11,562$6,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,103.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 57c | 9,118$5,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924.6 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 7,798$4,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,869.81 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 994.75$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.53 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 780$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 23c | 591.3$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…d765backed Yes | 10c | 288.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Yes | 15c | 258.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 72c | 220.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.97 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 34c | 219.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed Yes | 16c | 186.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 75c | 163.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…ffb0backed Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 74.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed No | 43c | 67.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 24c | 64.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 35.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…de98backed Yes | 35c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Yes | 72c | 29.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 77c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.