TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,765 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c637.92$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.514,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes62c433.23$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0448331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b06…978dbacked Yes54c428.47$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.383023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c344.6$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No47c341.13$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.611,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b41…df0bbacked Yes52c290.76$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes53c281.66$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1234651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No52c264.96$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.733,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a2d…e075backed Yes61c247.34$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No43c232.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c228$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…2eb3backed Yes56c204.78$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5f…5371backed Yes53c190.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4e…778fbacked Yes48c187.29$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bac…f238backed No50c186.5$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b1…2b10backed Yes50c186.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc656…a908backed Yes52c176.41$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes72c176.02$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.139360.2%56 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes57c175.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.383850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes46c152.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.151,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No32c144.09$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.34517.8%8 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7075…0bf9backed Yes52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2331…79ffbacked Yes52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1511…bbddbacked Yes52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65bc…134cbacked Yes52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…5713backed No48c140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a1…f3f2backed No48c140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc76f…42a7backed Yes52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cea…027abacked No48c140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc8…c4fdbacked No48c140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd692…2656backed No48c140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x918b…da5dbacked Yes46c118.69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.713122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No49c114.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4134457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ad…8851backed Yes70c114.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.65450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes45c110.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.022842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d2…a2fdbacked Yes47c110$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef09…b99fbacked No50c103$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-89.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebaf…3235backed Yes51c100.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.151127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc282…cd6abacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.542842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No30c98.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.712744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeea…70b7backed Yes47c92.86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes57c87.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.911,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes35c85.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.713627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes68c77.43$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.918176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No34c74.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes48c74.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No45c69.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.491,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…c440backed Yes52c67.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6c…00a8backed Yes60c66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41040%4 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes53c61.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.221,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes57c60.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8211359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2014637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2526236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes78c58.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes51c58.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.572626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2767…dac8backed Yes37c54.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.581136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb48f…c2a6backed Yes45c53.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…8963backed Yes47c53.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.68520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1469…edb1backed Yes41c52.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+84.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc76a…416ebacked Yes48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.112528%7 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed No47c50.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.48139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Yes57c49.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.393056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f3…3595backed No53c49.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.993743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fdc…ebaebacked Yes49c49.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa753…f297backed Yes54c48.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes48c48.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.983941%16 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No70c44.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3118242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes47c42.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.647950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd463…46aebacked Yes46c42.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0967…0c60backed No46c42.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3418860.1%113 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86f…0292backed Yes46c41.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb32d…26a8backed Yes52c40.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9736…64b8backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.710151.5%52 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No52c37.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6328329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Yes61c37.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.854548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b90…22edbacked No54c37.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6d…ae79backed No56c37.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea50…4929backed No56c35.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes46c35.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.878,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes57c35.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.181747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3533839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd198…6569backed Yes52c33.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes41c32.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.282,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes61c31.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.356258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2529835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes50c30.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No61c30.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.662,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc130…669fbacked Yes44c29.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.49333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes62c29.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed No69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked No45c28.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.765848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2042…643fbacked Yes46c28.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.26875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+62.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d34…cb3fbacked No77c28.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c6e…6561backed Yes48c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.563026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No57c27.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6931567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.