Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58c06a63dad3123b550ecd4becfec86d456eccc858433f4a3369b5e3baaaed5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 637.92$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 62c | 433.23$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 54c | 428.47$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 344.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 47c | 341.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.61 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b41…df0bbacked Yes | 52c | 290.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 53c | 281.66$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 264.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…e075backed Yes | 61c | 247.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 43c | 232.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 228$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…2eb3backed Yes | 56c | 204.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…5371backed Yes | 53c | 190.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…778fbacked Yes | 48c | 187.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…f238backed No | 50c | 186.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…2b10backed Yes | 50c | 186.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc656…a908backed Yes | 52c | 176.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 72c | 176.02$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 57c | 175.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 152.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 32c | 144.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7075…0bf9backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…79ffbacked Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…bbddbacked Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bc…134cbacked Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…5713backed No | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…f3f2backed No | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76f…42a7backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…027abacked No | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…c4fdbacked No | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…2656backed No | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 46c | 118.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 49c | 114.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…8851backed Yes | 70c | 114.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 45c | 110.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a2fdbacked Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…b99fbacked No | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 51c | 100.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 98.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…70b7backed Yes | 47c | 92.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 57c | 87.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 35c | 85.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 68c | 77.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 34c | 74.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 74.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…c440backed Yes | 52c | 67.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…00a8backed Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 61.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 57c | 60.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 78c | 58.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 51c | 58.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…dac8backed Yes | 37c | 54.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…c2a6backed Yes | 45c | 53.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…8963backed Yes | 47c | 53.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1469…edb1backed Yes | 41c | 52.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 47c | 50.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 57c | 49.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 53c | 49.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdc…ebaebacked Yes | 49c | 49.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…f297backed Yes | 54c | 48.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 48c | 48.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 70c | 44.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd463…46aebacked Yes | 46c | 42.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…0292backed Yes | 46c | 41.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…26a8backed Yes | 52c | 40.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 52c | 37.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 61c | 37.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…22edbacked No | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 56c | 37.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…4929backed No | 56c | 35.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 46c | 35.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…6569backed Yes | 52c | 33.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 32.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 61c | 31.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 50c | 30.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 30.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc130…669fbacked Yes | 44c | 29.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes | 62c | 29.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked No | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…643fbacked Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…cb3fbacked No | 77c | 28.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 57c | 27.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.