Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf99867815ee6822302f7f4340225366ee05e0536632ee48a722b0054a8605e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 3c | 2,366$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 3c | 1,082$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 67c | 1,065$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.38 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 811.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 31c | 704.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.57 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 77c | 567.95$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 32c | 561.64$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.38 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 409.2$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 36c | 406.37$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 33c | 393.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 373.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 65c | 307.72$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 77c | 303$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 60c | 296.98$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 37c | 279.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 37c | 272.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 246.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 34c | 240$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 22c | 230.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 78c | 230$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 44c | 228.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 227.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 215.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed No | 66c | 212.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 73c | 190.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…dac8backed Yes | 46c | 173.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…e075backed Yes | 38c | 170.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…f297backed Yes | 38c | 157.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 65c | 153.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked Yes | 38c | 143$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 138.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3e…6319backed Yes | 40c | 137.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 33c | 128.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 65c | 120.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 116.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 113.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 36c | 111.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 109.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 103.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 63c | 100.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a2fdbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 20c | 99.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 25c | 97.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 63c | 89.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked No | 72c | 88.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 25c | 88.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9610…49dbbacked Yes | 44c | 85.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked No | 74c | 85.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed No | 77c | 79.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 13c | 77.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 31c | 72.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed No | 63c | 71.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 67c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…496cbacked Yes | 34c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…d802backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 68.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…0ab1backed Yes | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9583…ff98backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…33acbacked Yes | 31c | 64.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes | 31c | 62.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 35c | 62.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 42c | 59.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 67c | 59.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…f658backed Yes | 37c | 57.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…e116backed Yes | 35c | 57.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 36c | 51.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…1629backed Yes | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 39c | 50.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 38c | 49.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 41c | 48.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…1ac8backed Yes | 41c | 46.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 66c | 46.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 60c | 43.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afc…7e90backed Yes | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 30c | 40.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 39c | 37.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 37c | 37.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed No | 79c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 65c | 35.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…dd7dbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 74c | 34.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 69c | 33.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 67c | 32.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 64c | 31.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…3d3ebacked No | 70c | 30.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.