CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58c6314a6860cd4b9d9a232c7ca37f4ede7aa0092f3fe04acf4ebff92a5d597e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,730 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 40c | 1,043$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.41 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 60c | 930$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 49c | 531$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.81 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 45c | 478.65$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 470.6$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 51c | 394.08$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 320.69$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…6fc8backed Over | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 40c | 237.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…fa27backed Under | 16c | 112.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…0497backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd13…d717backed Over | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 70c | 52.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…8fb9backed Under | 52c | 36.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…28f5backed Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…78aabacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…4c25backed Over | 52c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 48c | 25.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…85bfbacked Under | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Over | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…0134backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)FUT Esports won
- Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)Astralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.