Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or higher on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58cfffaacd746a17aa306f0546b81ddc23ab1016577465f22a767a44803cb745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dc5…6920backed Yes | 34c | 2,318$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…9969backed Yes | 34c | 2,318$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…91a9backed No | 66c | 1,562$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…6bd9backed No | 66c | 1,550$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd0…8e5ebacked No | 66c | 1,524$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 74c | 736$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 298.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 40c | 248.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 189$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5969…5bedbacked No | 72c | 183.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 152.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 145.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 142.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 30c | 132.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 33c | 127.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 124.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 99.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 41c | 99.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 70c | 81.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 70.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 69.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 29c | 67.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 46c | 64.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 35c | 62.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 62.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 21c | 58.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 48.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 47.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 51c | 41.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 51c | 41.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 36.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 36.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 29c | 35.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 44c | 30.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 37c | 30.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…3ee9backed Yes | 41c | 29.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 29.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 45c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 65c | 27.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 25.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 60c | 23.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211c…ee31backed No | 66c | 16.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…3c1ebacked No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or higher on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.