Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d03152012ada1727974316e7570a2b753ee9c19d649918c9abe045f0b8b848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 23c | 1,314$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.9 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 650.78$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 572.88$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 22c | 324.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 267.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 221.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…6cd6backed No | 5c | 209.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…b1e6backed Yes | 80c | 175.6$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 6c | 173.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…d3ebbacked Yes | 52c | 165.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 49c | 160.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 120.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 26c | 116.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 103.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 26c | 103.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 13c | 98.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 51c | 94.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 89.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 24c | 89.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 87.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 81.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 81.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 79.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 77.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 36c | 74.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…c80bbacked Yes | 67c | 70.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 22c | 69.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 58.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 58c | 49.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 49.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed No | 59c | 48.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 52c | 47.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 43.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 67c | 39.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 76c | 35.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 44c | 32.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…ab82backed Yes | 76c | 32.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 31.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 30.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…83b3backed Yes | 42c | 27.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 51c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…94debacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…ea62backed Yes | 54c | 21.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 80c | 20.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…d2dfbacked No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 0°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.