Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d6dba33b04c77c258c1797106a49843c1db4945991c3b073c65ccfd8d0cfd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Team Nemesis, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,155 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfae0…1b17backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 477$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…91ecbacked Team Nemesis | 24c | 459$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d8…004ebacked Team Nemesis | 24c | 381$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…5e2dbacked Team Nemesis | 24c | 342$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…01babacked Team Nemesis | 24c | 276$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…41d2backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 271$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d5…52ecbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 260$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…76a7backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 251$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…99adbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 243$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…7db3backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 243$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…2efcbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 239$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085f…4f48backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 218$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…bc01backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 207$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…73babacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 197$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9c…e9f4backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 196$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…41febacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…d374backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 177$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…0033backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 177$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…1e52backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 177$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…576ebacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 169$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…ad4cbacked Team Nemesis | 24c | 159$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…ab08backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 152$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…3736backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 151$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…7edbbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…3660backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652a…7290backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…e368backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Team Nemesis | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.