TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,989 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Yellow Submarine47c4,285$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.6854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Yellow Submarine71c2,605$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.347750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis36c2,336$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.942,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Yellow Submarine61c2,085$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.496145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Nemesis40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Nemesis53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Nemesis41c1,711$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Yellow Submarine70c1,680$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.9841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Nemesis13c1,551$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0724251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Yellow Submarine60c1,500$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.0466662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Nemesis30c1,472$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.491,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Team Nemesis4c1,122$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.96735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Nemesis39c788.58$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3633041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine67c782.38$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.012,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Yellow Submarine51c781.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.9838653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Nemesis54c699.62$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.36043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Nemesis29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Yellow Submarine71c682.61$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.9611854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e35…8ca4backed Team Nemesis49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Yellow Submarine50c396.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.091,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis38c294.05$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.822,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Nemesis52c288.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Nemesis16c210.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.16132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Yellow Submarine51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2911…2a0dbacked Team Nemesis57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003423.5%8 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Yellow Submarine43c175.44$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10071454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Nemesis57c170.66$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9873554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Nemesis24c157$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8331835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yellow Submarine71c140.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.841952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine73c113.3$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3146649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Nemesis50c100.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Yellow Submarine65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3528549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Nemesis35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3553634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bc…a463backed Team Nemesis54c92.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis25c81.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Yellow Submarine53c80.43$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.814657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yellow Submarine57c72.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.371,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Nemesis37c72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6415033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3746…a99fbacked Team Nemesis22c55.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-49.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x00fb…4442backed Yellow Submarine43c53.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.088763.2%55 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2897142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…2f2abacked Team Nemesis56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514134.8%49 W · 92 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Nemesis34c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1413733.6%46 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Nemesis29c41.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yellow Submarine53c40.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8422456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Team Nemesis49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.637851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Team Nemesis56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.47149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis49c35.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1586659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yellow Submarine58c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.499350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Team Nemesis50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Yellow Submarine66c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7325255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.