Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03178275cc5b8fc836dc675108d2c6fa02c0fccb3511ea424d118334f302846d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,989 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 4,285$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.68 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Yellow Submarine | 71c | 2,605$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.34 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 36c | 2,336$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 2,085$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.49 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Nemesis | 41c | 1,711$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Yellow Submarine | 70c | 1,680$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.98 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Nemesis | 13c | 1,551$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.07 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 1,500$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.04 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 1,472$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.49 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Team Nemesis | 4c | 1,122$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Team Nemesis | 39c | 788.58$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.36 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 67c | 782.38$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.01 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 781.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.98 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Nemesis | 54c | 699.62$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.3 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Nemesis | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 682.61$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.96 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…8ca4backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 396.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 38c | 294.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 288.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Nemesis | 16c | 210.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Yellow Submarine | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…2a0dbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 170.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 157$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yellow Submarine | 71c | 140.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 113.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Nemesis | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 92.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 81.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Yellow Submarine | 53c | 80.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 72.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Nemesis | 37c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Team Nemesis | 22c | 55.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…4442backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 53.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…2f2abacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Nemesis | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 41.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 40.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 49c | 35.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yellow Submarine | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.