Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04b846a3a2cb41a104636e065de3b372f3aee02fed14b44776a0f2514d92a1ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,612 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…5d05backed Team Nemesis | 0c | 58,560$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Yellow Submarine | 44c | 5,705$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,205.35 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 5,138$2,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,884.44 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Nemesis | 48c | 2,057$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.9 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Nemesis | 15c | 1,996$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.75 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 1,925$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.44 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 1,459$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.24 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 1,362$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.7 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 941.99$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.01 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Nemesis | 9c | 816.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 700$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…21aabacked Yellow Submarine | 43c | 692.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.54 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 601.06$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.06 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…2514backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 597$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 586.49$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.51 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Team Nemesis | 9c | 570.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Nemesis | 8c | 468.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yellow Submarine | 55c | 384.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.54 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Yellow Submarine | 38c | 379.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.06 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 360$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 342.92$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.47 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 327.89$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 327.37$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…7287backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 323.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Nemesis | 66c | 319.64$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.88 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Yellow Submarine | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 299.59$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 54c | 298.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.22 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Yellow Submarine | 46c | 282.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 275.8$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.85 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 49c | 260.27$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Nemesis | 6c | 244.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Team Nemesis | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…6f8cbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 208.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…9b2bbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 206.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Nemesis | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 180.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 180.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Yellow Submarine | 64c | 175.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 162.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 146.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Yellow Submarine | 48c | 141.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Nemesis | 31c | 129.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Yellow Submarine | 58c | 126.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Yellow Submarine | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 99.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Team Nemesis | 48c | 96.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Team Nemesis | 15c | 81.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Nemesis | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Yellow Submarine | 38c | 68.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 63.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Nemesis | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d99…faa2backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 62.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 62.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Team Nemesis | 53c | 57.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…4442backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 48.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb04f…5822backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 46.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Yellow Submarine | 43c | 41.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…89babacked Team Nemesis | 62c | 37.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 35.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…ed1ebacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…e661backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 26.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yellow Submarine | 49c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 22.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…2f2abacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.