Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Tianjin 4 Women: Junlu Sun vs Yuzuha Negishi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5908c6248fafc1332fe4c8a122834b93bc6222c1f52d9b9bafe9bbb2c1173bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuzuha Negishiof Junlu Sun, Yuzuha Negishi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2978…b511backed Junlu Sun | 34c | 1,765$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yuzuha Negishi | 76c | 592.07$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…dffdbacked Junlu Sun | 60c | 585$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Junlu Sun | 36c | 568.3$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.67 | 488 | 55.9%273 W · 215 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Junlu Sun | 25c | 380.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Junlu Sun | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Junlu Sun | 75c | 287.56$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.42 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yuzuha Negishi | 75c | 275.02$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Yuzuha Negishi | 74c | 270.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yuzuha Negishi | 70c | 254.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Junlu Sun | 73c | 244.28$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.41 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Junlu Sun | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yuzuha Negishi | 65c | 193.67$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Yuzuha Negishi | 22c | 176.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 230 | 30.4%70 W · 160 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yuzuha Negishi | 77c | 165.69$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Junlu Sun | 8c | 131.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Junlu Sun | 39c | 122.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Junlu Sun | 53c | 110.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Junlu Sun | 15c | 107.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yuzuha Negishi | 73c | 100.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…e738backed Yuzuha Negishi | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Junlu Sun | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 360 | 53.1%191 W · 169 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…af5bbacked Yuzuha Negishi | 45c | 91.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Yuzuha Negishi | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Yuzuha Negishi | 56c | 73.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Junlu Sun | 33c | 72.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Yuzuha Negishi | 70c | 72.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Yuzuha Negishi | 68c | 67.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Junlu Sun | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Junlu Sun | 23c | 50.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Junlu Sun | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…9c72backed Yuzuha Negishi | 68c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 430 | 54.9%236 W · 194 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.