South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59134b1bff62ad5b7e77fdf9cdc8cb4ae2626fefdb80ed11edb62701ef6e2b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Under | 24c | 26,387$6,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,332.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 12,298$9,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 76c | 10,047$7,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.23 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 79c | 3,140$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.4 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 2,529$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 33c | 1,929$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.95 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 69c | 731.09$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.13 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 76c | 626.45$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 76c | 326.34$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 29c | 293.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 68c | 279.55$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 75c | 254.42$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 34c | 250.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Over | 76c | 247.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 74c | 168.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 69c | 126.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 77c | 102.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 99.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 32c | 81.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Under | 20c | 72.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 76c | 60.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 105 | 64.8%68 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 76c | 54.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 59c | 48.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 76c | 44.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 67c | 43.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Over | 70c | 42.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…2ba1backed Over | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Over | 76c | 41.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Over | 71c | 41.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 77c | 32.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 78c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 70c | 24.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 76c | 23.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 76c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Over | 77c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.