CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Fluxo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59284beb13eb4278c2373cbacc4fd18cefbdcabf09a2fcbfab052ed49ba0b810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluxoof NRG, Fluxo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed NRG | 55c | 40,156$22,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,053.47 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Fluxo | 45c | 37,229$16,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,497.94 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Fluxo | 66c | 3,830$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.3 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Fluxo | 46c | 3,315$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.72 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked NRG | 35c | 2,800$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed NRG | 54c | 1,839$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fluxo | 43c | 1,749$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.28 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked NRG | 31c | 1,300$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Fluxo | 45c | 1,059$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.85 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed NRG | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fluxo | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed NRG | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed NRG | 56c | 931.35$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.24 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Fluxo | 57c | 875.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed NRG | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked NRG | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked NRG | 55c | 699.99$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Fluxo | 47c | 632.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.96 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Fluxo | 48c | 621$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 116 | 31.9%37 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed NRG | 46c | 567.8$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.72 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed NRG | 24c | 530$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed NRG | 55c | 525.75$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed NRG | 52c | 525$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Fluxo | 46c | 506.79$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.41 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed NRG | 54c | 465.27$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Fluxo | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed NRG | 52c | 376.92$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fluxo | 45c | 361$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed NRG | 52c | 254.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked NRG | 52c | 222.86$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed NRG | 31c | 176.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…9172backed NRG | 50c | 122.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed NRG | 51c | 118.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked NRG | 59c | 118$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Fluxo | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Fluxo | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked NRG | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Fluxo | 50c | 55.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed NRG | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Fluxo | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed NRG | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed NRG | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.