Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Twente beat Olympiacos?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x594c798bc165c48980cf5c2716fb945cf654a9c3992a50d4e97cbcd8c0e22bbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 22c | 3,811$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.04 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 78c | 3,313$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.24 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 80c | 1,003$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.23 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 21c | 480$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 449.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 14c | 199.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Twente beat Olympiacos?this page
- Will Olympiacos beat Twente?No won
- Will the match between Olympiacos and Twente end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.