Mls · resolved market
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x594dea45ac18b4e36a68f978aab01ce93a7255a646bf0b65fd9aa1f557cc2c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto FCof Inter Miami CF, Toronto FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Inter Miami CF | 14c | 713.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Toronto FC | 64c | 473.68$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Toronto FC | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Inter Miami CF | 36c | 249.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Inter Miami CF | 14c | 228$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Toronto FC | 8c | 152$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto FC | 33c | 127.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Toronto FC | 26c | 83.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Inter Miami CF | 16c | 78.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Toronto FC | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto FC | 41c | 55.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Toronto FC | 47c | 44.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Inter Miami CF | 40c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto FC | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f9…b54ebacked Inter Miami CF | 70c | 20.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Toronto FC | 79c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.