Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x595145a92ac40be56293edd3b98f99fc3900b02ad7ed7c55f1c7035e5f6571b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Inner Circle, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Inner Circle | 62c | 4,193$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,597.36 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 3,587$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.42 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 2,084$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.28 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Inner Circle | 49c | 1,745$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.01 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 1,416$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.44 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 1,293$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.07 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 1,036$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.26 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 963.08$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.48 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Inner Circle | 61c | 924.88$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.46 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Inner Circle | 26c | 742.19$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…ad81backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 658.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…ea40backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 600$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Inner Circle | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Inner Circle | 41c | 509.75$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Inner Circle | 32c | 447.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 440$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 43c | 439.46$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…fbadbacked Inner Circle | 69c | 426.91$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.03 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Inner Circle | 29c | 423.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Inner Circle | 27c | 408.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Inner Circle | 55c | 399.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 398.09$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.19 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 326.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…9b7dbacked Inner Circle | 50c | 303.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 297.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.26 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523b…cd5abacked Inner Circle | 42c | 229.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 208.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0737…fe78backed Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 177.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Inner Circle | 25c | 176.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 165.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Inner Circle | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…21a7backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 141.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 133.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…c16fbacked Inner Circle | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 108.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Inner Circle | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 98.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Inner Circle | 33c | 74.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 65.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Inner Circle | 35c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Inner Circle | 43c | 62.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…d75fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Inner Circle | 43c | 54.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Inner Circle | 39c | 53.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Inner Circle | 41c | 45.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 43.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 41.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…b7b5backed Inner Circle | 42c | 36.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Inner Circle | 44c | 35.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 34.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 34.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Inner Circle | 42c | 25.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Inner Circle | 44c | 22.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 17.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 16.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.