Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e462195d940590e1f73952c3360527f80b9c9b7f7b54687724b14e4cc5c8953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Inner Circle, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef18…ea40backed Inner Circle | 29c | 2,386$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 2,133$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.38 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 44c | 1,137$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.37 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked Inner Circle | 50c | 1,134$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.96 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 1,020$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.7 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 524$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.82 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Inner Circle | 34c | 382.82$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 378.54$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.26 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…0c2abacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 376.2$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 371$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.05 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 354$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.69 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…9f48backed Inner Circle | 40c | 321.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle | 60c | 309.05$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Inner Circle | 33c | 305.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 301.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.1 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 300$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 300$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…a723backed Inner Circle | 28c | 290.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 273.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Inner Circle | 35c | 269.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…5d92backed Inner Circle | 26c | 242.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 211.68$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 208.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 184.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Inner Circle | 60c | 177.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…f538backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 148.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 144$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 143.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Inner Circle | 55c | 133.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 64c | 133.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 125.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Inner Circle | 63c | 108.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0737…fe78backed Inner Circle | 68c | 105.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 103.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Inner Circle | 21c | 102.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 101$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 97.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 93.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Inner Circle | 29c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Inner Circle | 15c | 68.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 52.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Inner Circle | 61c | 51.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…3a86backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf219…47e9backed Inner Circle | 26c | 45.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 41.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…6223backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 38.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Inner Circle | 34c | 36.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Inner Circle | 50c | 34.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Inner Circle | 29c | 34.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Inner Circle | 52c | 33.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Inner Circle | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 30.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Inner Circle | 36c | 28.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.