Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3060e5aeb0300f7fa0b6a1286b571124abba173c92291ae22f003af7dce4c0ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Inner Circle, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 4,265$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.66 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Inner Circle | 43c | 2,601$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.45 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 47c | 1,342$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.85 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Inner Circle | 59c | 996.27$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.14 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 980.19$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.54 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…ea40backed Inner Circle | 15c | 747.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 671.92$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.44 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…9b7dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 655.02$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 555.47$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.5 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Inner Circle | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Inner Circle | 57c | 436.14$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Inner Circle | 47c | 385.63$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.05 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…148dbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 349.76$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Inner Circle | 59c | 329.08$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Inner Circle | 57c | 307.6$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed Inner Circle | 50c | 261.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Inner Circle | 39c | 248.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 232.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 54c | 222.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Inner Circle | 48c | 196.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Inner Circle | 9c | 183$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Inner Circle | 9c | 181$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 179.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Inner Circle | 13c | 179$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Inner Circle | 39c | 173.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Inner Circle | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Inner Circle | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Inner Circle | 54c | 147.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…f347backed Inner Circle | 45c | 124.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 100.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Inner Circle | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…90b3backed Inner Circle | 54c | 88.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Inner Circle | 52c | 71.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…0e7abacked Inner Circle | 54c | 64.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Inner Circle | 61c | 55.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 52.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…c777backed Inner Circle | 36c | 50.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Inner Circle | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Inner Circle | 54c | 44.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…e8e7backed Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 43.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Inner Circle | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 41.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Inner Circle | 47c | 35.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Inner Circle | 60c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Inner Circle | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 31.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Inner Circle | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 28.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…bf5dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 27.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 27.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Inner Circle | 42c | 24.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.