NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5971161e203a100b7ef5cd365c04a3ef1349b4f91ed3361bf22128e3971cd08d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Sabres, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Flyers | 2c | 2,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Flyers | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Flyers | 7c | 700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sabres | 52c | 696$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.71 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 50c | 513.39$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.57 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Flyers | 67c | 274.63$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flyers | 38c | 141.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sabres | 33c | 107.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Flyers | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sabres | 33c | 85.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Sabres | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Sabres | 36c | 68.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Sabres | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Flyers | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Flyers | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Flyers | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Flyers | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868e…c0f0backed Flyers | 66c | 16.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. SabresSabres won
- Flyers vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.