MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59810278d0e85f9077a4a414aa33a92b76bc40137f7f8b51e239c1e5babc399d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 9,074$3,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,143.96 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 8,328$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,747 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d5…dba4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 3,436$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 1,339$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 1,029$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.95 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 1,029$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.95 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 1,029$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.95 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 10c | 760$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 698.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.42 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 71.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 60.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 41.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.