NHL · resolved market
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5984c4698c084a916d9c8d067e76fa9768eb94d2a6a3e60cfa76e21311d17a08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof USA, Canada
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf794…3becbacked Canada | 3c | 4,349$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed USA | 79c | 1,141$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…cbfebacked Canada | 12c | 846.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Canada | 7c | 466.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…8731backed Canada | 22c | 455.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…2915backed Canada | 5c | 350.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Canada | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…f67dbacked Canada | 13c | 233.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Canada | 7c | 221.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…fc9bbacked Canada | 22c | 219.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…76aebacked Canada | 18c | 216.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…67b1backed Canada | 21c | 208.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Canada | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 293 | 19.8%58 W · 235 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f37…b248backed Canada | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Canada | 9c | 127.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…4094backed Canada | 13c | 125.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Canada | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed USA | 49c | 103.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…2e63backed Canada | 13c | 98.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…b2debacked Canada | 14c | 90.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…f3d2backed Canada | 58c | 86.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…64b1backed Canada | 25c | 40.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…2a67backed Canada | 56c | 26.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.