Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x598b14593c3e12ddeb511dc50380f3b8417004d544620c12aa7dfb938378f523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 4c | 684.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 5c | 238$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 42c | 227.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 70c | 207.6$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 202.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 198.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 66c | 186.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 179.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 29c | 175.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 59c | 169.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 63c | 158.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…0445backed No | 76c | 158.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked Yes | 16c | 143.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 79c | 128.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…b49cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 59c | 99.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 95.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 86.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 86.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 82.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 27c | 81.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 73.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 67.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 31c | 64.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…3282backed No | 60c | 63.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 75c | 62.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 58.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked No | 62c | 58.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 41c | 52.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 73c | 46.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 43c | 46.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 43.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842f…bf2fbacked Yes | 49c | 39.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 44c | 33.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 33.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 70c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…236ebacked Yes | 41c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 72c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed No | 76c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.