Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd37742bb487ed5889c52ee0c26779ddf06da029dd304c087bf39e692a7d791c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 389.39$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 310.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 278.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 204.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 170.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 139.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 71c | 126.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 124.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 103.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 69c | 96.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 84.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 80c | 74.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 74.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 40c | 74.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 26c | 71.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 74c | 67.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 62.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 79c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 80c | 61.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 59.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 56.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 36c | 54.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 53.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 46c | 52.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 75c | 46.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 45.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…3507backed No | 62c | 42.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 68c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.