Olympics · resolved market
Will Laura Nolte (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5994e42c15d187dfba712cc2547eafd140525d23d99014932cff41b9fbd8fb9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Yes | 73c | 767.73$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 26c | 706.78$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 18c | 499.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 72c | 199$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 28c | 175.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed No | 24c | 173$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 25c | 172.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 27c | 133$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 65c | 107$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed No | 25c | 69.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 69c | 54.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 78c | 51.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 31c | 49.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked Yes | 79c | 34.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…2804backed Yes | 66c | 34.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 72cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Laura Nolte (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Kaillie Armbruster Humphries (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Kim Kalicki (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Lisa Buckwitz (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Melanie Hasler (SUI) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.