Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x599f1efb3550b6ea4f1698e1b159dc7e488489191ec7b6d9c05e8b60bdf04c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 57c | 3,997$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.84 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 43c | 2,949$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.16 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 46c | 1,083$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.66 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 57c | 877.18$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 43c | 855.36$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.55 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 54c | 367.15$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 54c | 367.15$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 43c | 291.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.43 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 216.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 54c | 183.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 53c | 151.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 148.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Under | 43c | 99.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 48c | 59.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 48.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 48c | 39.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 43c | 34.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 43c | 29.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 43c | 26.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 43c | 26.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Under | 45c | 22.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Over | 55c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5this page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona LumberjacksMontana State Bobcats won
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-5.5)Montana State Bobcats won
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-6.5)Montana State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.