Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5bcb21e6d462807dd38328a44cbbe22066187445edd096c341a36871d6973fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Montana State Bobcats, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 5,779$4,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.47 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 71c | 2,222$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.38 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Montana State Bobcats | 72c | 2,105$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.92 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 1,700$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 26c | 1,354$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.94 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 26c | 1,045$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.65 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 936.64$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.99 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 889.89$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.47 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 889.34$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.82 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 19c | 694.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 493 | 45.4%224 W · 269 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 685.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.56 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Montana State Bobcats | 73c | 681.18$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.92 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 27c | 653.64$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.48 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 32c | 634.74$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 19c | 553.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 21c | 552.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 26c | 538.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 533.21$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats | 76c | 513.31$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…802cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 75c | 496.69$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 456.48$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 27c | 449.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 360.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 31c | 354.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 316.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 300.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 31c | 299.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 26c | 297.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 24c | 280.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Montana State Bobcats | 72c | 275.82$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 16c | 186.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 171.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 26c | 148.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 26c | 146.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 71c | 139.49$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 131.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 114.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 107.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 16c | 103.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 103.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Montana State Bobcats | 69c | 100.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Montana State Bobcats | 73c | 100.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 88.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 87.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…7bfebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 14c | 85.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…2f04backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 27c | 83.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 27c | 80.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 75.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Montana State Bobcats | 69c | 70.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 29c | 67.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 334 | 45.8%153 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Montana State Bobcats | 73c | 60.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 25c | 60.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 25c | 60.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 26c | 38.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 30c | 37.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Montana State Bobcats | 71c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 32.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Montana State Bobcats | 69c | 27.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…5043backed Montana State Bobcats | 73c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…2711backed Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 22.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…733cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 76c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacksthis page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 142.5Under won
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-5.5)Montana State Bobcats won
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-6.5)Montana State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.