TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Montana State Bobcatsof Montana State Bobcats, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,700 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c2b…2575backed Montana State Bobcats74c5,779$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.4760949.8%303 W · 306 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Montana State Bobcats71c2,222$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.382,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Montana State Bobcats72c2,105$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.921,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c1,700$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49555532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks26c1,354$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.9455840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks26c1,045$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.653444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29021549.3%106 W · 109 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Montana State Bobcats70c936.64$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9989850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c889.89$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.471,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c889.34$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8274649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks19c694.7$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7249345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c685.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5681528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Montana State Bobcats73c681.18$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9235147.6%167 W · 184 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks27c653.64$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4834746.1%160 W · 187 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks32c634.74$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks19c553.73$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.154,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks21c552.79$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.283,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks26c538.27$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9516546.7%77 W · 88 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c533.21$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.326749.1%131 W · 136 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats76c513.31$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.552,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb546…802cbacked Montana State Bobcats75c496.69$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.741258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Montana State Bobcats70c456.48$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.853,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks27c449.74$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.412,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c360.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1849157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks31c354.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9362140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c316.74$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.392,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c300.86$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2424737.7%93 W · 154 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks31c299.92$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.642,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks26c297.24$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2830649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks24c280.43$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.975,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Montana State Bobcats72c275.82$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.231,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks16c186.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2487047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c171.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.049947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks26c148.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.585,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks26c146.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9812147.9%58 W · 63 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Montana State Bobcats71c139.49$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2183350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c131.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1f…4a48backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c114.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.735520%11 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc59f…f632backed Montana State Bobcats74c107.38$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks16c103.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c103.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Montana State Bobcats69c100.69$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2112655.6%70 W · 56 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9bd…8469backed Montana State Bobcats73c100.67$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.181546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c88.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.743850%19 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Montana State Bobcats74c87.73$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6861446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7941…7bfebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks14c85.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.313132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x492d…2f04backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks27c83.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.525253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks27c80.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7424340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c75.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.991,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Montana State Bobcats69c70.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9392246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c67.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6333445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Montana State Bobcats73c60.82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.422462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks25c60.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0514244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks25c60.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0575447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.516755.7%93 W · 74 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks26c38.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0925837.6%97 W · 161 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks30c37.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3261244.9%275 W · 337 L+1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Montana State Bobcats71c34.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1413450%67 W · 67 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Montana State Bobcats70c32.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.841,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks31c32.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Montana State Bobcats74c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3243053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Montana State Bobcats73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.139050.5%197 W · 193 L-34.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Montana State Bobcats69c27.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.647346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…5043backed Montana State Bobcats73c27.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f0…2711backed Montana State Bobcats74c22.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.946162.3%38 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed Montana State Bobcats74c22.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.935451.9%28 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Montana State Bobcats71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.84942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96c…733cbacked Montana State Bobcats76c18.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5113448.5%65 W · 69 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Montana State Bobcats74c15.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.142642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Montana State Bobcats74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8526550.6%134 W · 131 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.