Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bd286051327427b33eedb64306d57768dc03c2661470a5604a563215441c95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 4c | 778.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 14c | 640.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 16c | 604$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 17c | 597.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 510.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 368.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 18c | 365.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 7c | 274.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 263.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 9c | 240.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…9f31backed Yes | 7c | 220.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 21c | 213.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 154.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 14c | 142.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 79c | 130.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 15c | 125.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 15c | 119.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 119.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 17c | 117.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 111.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 12c | 109.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…c329backed Yes | 15c | 97.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 12c | 95.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 94.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 79.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 14c | 78.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked Yes | 17c | 70.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed No | 79c | 30.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 180 | 76.1%137 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 79c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.