Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd1069a9f23f4ee216fcc3c1f2eaf36dcfb216d6c8507ca981ffdfafaced6961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 1,518$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.01 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 78c | 679.44$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 324.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 313.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 10c | 266.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 224.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 216.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 36c | 201.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 189.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…fb66backed No | 69c | 174.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 10c | 140.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 125.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 32c | 121.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 35c | 106.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 68c | 102.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 99.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 93.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 86.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 18c | 76.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 29c | 76.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 19c | 74.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 67c | 71.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes | 28c | 70.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e24…7e71backed Yes | 35c | 70.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 37c | 65.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 34c | 63.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 61.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 33c | 60.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 33c | 59.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 27c | 57.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 55.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 24c | 52.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 72c | 47.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 47.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 47.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 37c | 46.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 50c | 45.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 70c | 44.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 64c | 44.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 31c | 43.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 31c | 40.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 34c | 40.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked Yes | 32c | 40.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 40.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 37.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 34.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 67c | 27.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 71c | 26.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 69c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 18.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 68c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 68c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.