Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c743bd64b9bfb66aaa3d6c4e64c439569dc18244d0f7be85b349669424e8031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,165$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.14 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 51c | 721.45$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.76 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 535.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 49c | 459$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 247.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 189.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 42c | 155.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 67c | 145.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 144.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 72c | 129.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 124.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 121.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 61c | 118.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 114.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 63c | 100.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 55c | 99.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 49c | 96.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 56c | 86.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 61c | 81.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 56c | 73.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 79c | 72.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 72.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 61c | 69.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 42c | 65.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 36c | 65.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 39c | 61.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 39c | 59.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 38c | 59.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 39c | 56.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 55.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Yes | 43c | 52.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 47c | 52.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 45c | 51.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 55c | 48.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 48.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 39c | 46.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 45.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 45.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 55c | 43.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 54c | 40.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…de43backed No | 57c | 33.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 45c | 33.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 52c | 29.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 27.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 71c | 27.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 54c | 27.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 60c | 26.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 59c | 26.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…5153backed Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 56c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…a460backed Yes | 59c | 24.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 24.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 43c | 23.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 23.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 54c | 23.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 48c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…a062backed Yes | 55c | 22.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…bae5backed No | 57c | 19.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 63c | 16.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 16.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.