Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59d4ae5271729549d0dea061595422ddbce993884bab04e7636a8cbf42d519ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 536.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 528.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 10c | 499.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 419.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 22c | 379.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 17c | 335.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 302.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 300.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 18c | 202.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 79c | 186.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 76c | 171.72$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 155.28$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 125.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 107.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 25c | 91.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 78c | 90.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 68.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 17c | 66.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 50.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0b…cbd1backed Yes | 36c | 42.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…1682backed No | 79c | 38.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 35.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9054backed No | 71c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 74c | 23.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 80c | 17.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.