NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a04b665e712327c91479e715d2d293261b705bf3066ef6e1f8abf9a26cc3c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 12,380$5,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,323.32 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 12,086$6,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,195.62 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…bf12backed Over | 57c | 1,067$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 507.39$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.13 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 43c | 444$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…1d6ebacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 217.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Over | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 56c | 72.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 57c | 64.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 45c | 55.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Under | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Under | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 43c | 35.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 27.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…02b3backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 19.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Red Wings vs. SenatorsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.