NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x549410c1a5759f5e1e6b26d988c050fa09ff193acc16566c85fa228b00741d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Senators, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Red Wings | 64c | 1,543$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.48 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Senators | 37c | 1,307$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.59 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Red Wings | 63c | 1,095$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.15 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 36c | 654$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.44 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Red Wings | 63c | 447.78$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Senators | 37c | 380.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Senators | 36c | 327$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Senators | 37c | 309$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Red Wings | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Red Wings | 63c | 155$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Senators | 35c | 150.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Senators | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Red Wings | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…c63bbacked Red Wings | 64c | 109$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Red Wings | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Senators | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Senators | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Senators | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Red Wings | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Red Wings | 62c | 72.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Red Wings | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Red Wings | 46c | 58.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a8dbbacked Senators | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Red Wings | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Senators | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Red Wings | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Senators | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 35c | 48.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Red Wings | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Senators | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Senators | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Senators | 36c | 42.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Senators | 64c | 39.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Senators | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Senators | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Senators | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Senators | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Red Wings | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…1d4abacked Red Wings | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Red Wings | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…c4edbacked Red Wings | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. SenatorsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.