NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1531f12233c9b6f12f8248306b41ddfc4899cba55ef1318d0f062074e71814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Maple Leafs, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09ae…b883backed Red Wings | 69c | 6,204$4,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.91 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 5,731$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.05 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed Maple Leafs | 44c | 825$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 692.5$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 640.22$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.49 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Red Wings | 59c | 638$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.58 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs | 2c | 565$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Red Wings | 53c | 317.26$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 600 | 42.8%257 W · 343 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 141$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Maple Leafs | 24c | 105.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf974…f5eebacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 67.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 52.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Red Wings | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Red Wings | 60c | 38.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.