Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1bce691ebffac892c4b7f18ead2be13c770cf96074d825e75aad48b815f2d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 53c | 560.74$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.7 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 72c | 394.54$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.98 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 72c | 310.28$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 221.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 17c | 203.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.95 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 190.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 165.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 31c | 159.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 38c | 149$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 149$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 132.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 130$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 40c | 118.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 38c | 109$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 99.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 77.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 66.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 59.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 73c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 34c | 50.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 37c | 49.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 48.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 48.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 32c | 48.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 78c | 47.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 41.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 25c | 40.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 40.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 40.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…bdd3backed Yes | 44c | 34.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…9e81backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 33.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 32.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 38c | 32.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 31.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 67c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 28.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 27.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 27.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 25.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 66c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 21.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 54c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed No | 69c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.