Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71eaf3615d6e1bd5c14d81ff771d0ff590a48e7ab999651c26db80a3ce7bbdc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 45c | 675.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.29 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 76c | 610.43$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 356.9$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 41c | 249.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 59c | 187.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 23c | 176.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 41c | 159.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 119.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 111.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 102.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 91.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 87.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 85.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 22c | 81.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 79.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 69c | 76.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 69.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 26c | 59.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 47c | 55.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 71c | 48.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 46.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 50c | 40.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 38.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 35.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 34.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 32.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 32.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 32.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 28.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 28.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 27.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 26.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 46c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 63c | 23.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 23.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9e…4351backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 19.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 18.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.