Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marcos Giron vs Alejandro Tabilo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a580ae07728bfe1f5d48c407616ccd72e18ade35c774eda045d3fbd33953d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tabiloof Giron, Tabilo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Giron | 30c | 1,864$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.07 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tabilo | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Giron | 24c | 677.31$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Tabilo | 56c | 539.29$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.29 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giron | 45c | 511.41$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.75 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Giron | 44c | 478.57$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Giron | 29c | 455$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.15 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Tabilo | 59c | 432.65$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.65 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Giron | 26c | 430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Giron | 19c | 400.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Giron | 37c | 400.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Giron | 30c | 331$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tabilo | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Tabilo | 58c | 230$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Giron | 45c | 220.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giron | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Tabilo | 54c | 195.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Tabilo | 55c | 183.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tabilo | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Giron | 40c | 136$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Tabilo | 56c | 116.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Giron | 31c | 96.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Giron | 48c | 88.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Tabilo | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Giron | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Tabilo | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Tabilo | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Giron | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Giron | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tabilo | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tabilo | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Giron | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…68f3backed Tabilo | 56c | 25.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5200…9677backed Giron | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.