College Football · resolved market
Spread: Missouri State (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a7214cff0ee96af5bad1c95b26bcb9e06bb8751c6e4338c8b5c80a2964a8ef0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri Stateof Missouri State, Florida International
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb08c…9b35backed Florida International | 52c | 7,544$3,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,922.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b08…0327backed Missouri State | 48c | 1,087$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…6a9fbacked Missouri State | 48c | 1,083$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…8265backed Missouri State | 48c | 1,082$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…2cadbacked Missouri State | 48c | 1,082$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…5fdcbacked Missouri State | 48c | 1,078$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…4e79backed Missouri State | 48c | 1,070$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…0606backed Missouri State | 48c | 1,062$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Missouri State | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Florida International | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri State (-4.5)this page
- Florida International vs. Missouri StateMissouri State won
- Florida International vs. Missouri State: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri State (-3.5)Missouri State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.