College Football · resolved market
Spread: Missouri State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeccc2ba6ec614948c17ead574680aed5e7a8af55996afe3ce57845239e793356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri Stateof Missouri State, Florida International
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Florida International | 52c | 29,526$15,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,448.58 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Missouri State | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Missouri State | 49c | 18,959$9,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,760.52 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Florida International | 51c | 18,195$9,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,295.69 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Missouri State | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,122.45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e3…a38abacked Missouri State | 51c | 5,681$2,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Missouri State | 46c | 3,088$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Missouri State | 49c | 1,943$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.91 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Florida International | 54c | 1,404$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.86 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida International | 52c | 1,199$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.92 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Missouri State | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Florida International | 52c | 996$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.92 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…08e6backed Florida International | 49c | 874$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…4542backed Florida International | 49c | 856$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5029…318abacked Florida International | 49c | 851$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f7…b623backed Florida International | 49c | 822$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…6225backed Florida International | 49c | 814$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb9…0879backed Florida International | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…d8e1backed Florida International | 49c | 624$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Florida International | 50c | 495.09$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.19 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Missouri State | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Missouri State | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Missouri State | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Florida International | 52c | 233.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Florida International | 53c | 199.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Florida International | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Missouri State | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Florida International | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Missouri State | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Missouri State | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Missouri State | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Missouri State | 47c | 86.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Missouri State | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Missouri State | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b7…9c83backed Florida International | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Missouri State | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Missouri State | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Missouri State | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri State (-3.5)this page
- Florida International vs. Missouri StateMissouri State won
- Florida International vs. Missouri State: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri State (-4.5)Missouri State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.