MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a83ed275f8698e7cbdba2c1dd14e5d40f8aada063b52a6d8d88e8bddbed0fc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,179 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 547.32$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 218$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 168.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 110.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 97.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 85.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 70.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…2661backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 42.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 27.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 18.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…664bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…d991backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.