Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9f259e4b00dd13a9bdd291ecd83768a9e2dcec4db59bde369a2b35691ce05a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,784$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 29c | 1,983$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 855.27$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.43 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 830.34$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.68 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 106.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 99.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…678fbacked Yes | 13c | 89.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 72c | 86.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 78.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…d028backed No | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 26c | 58.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1da…23a3backed No | 74c | 55.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 48.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 46.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 35c | 45.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 75c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 29.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 72c | 27.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…8a22backed No | 74c | 16.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 74c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…d219backed No | 71c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed No | 74c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-04-24?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.