Premier League · resolved market
Will Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab827aeb93c642aa74645789fc95cd820dc3b164c46a4c832190033b9fa1ca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,143$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 740.97$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 704.88$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 391.12$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 380$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 66c | 202.35$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…f350backed Yes | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…398ebacked Yes | 52c | 192.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 178.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 163.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 27c | 144$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Yes | 27c | 88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 55c | 67.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 37c | 45.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-01-04?No won
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.