Premier League · resolved market
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb021c480c193797a2735c7c0c44b4bd93c4515dc01b23376c9eaf1829f1a796f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 5,484$3,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.93 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Yes | 44c | 4,783$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.53 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 2,866$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.97 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,250$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.53 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 48c | 1,081$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.66 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked No | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.43 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 916$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.86 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…4bd3backed No | 56c | 673.21$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.21 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +50%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 56c | 671.45$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.44 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 56c | 367$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked No | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked No | 56c | 354.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f4…584dbacked No | 58c | 312$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…82cebacked Yes | 42c | 310$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 58c | 188.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 52c | 175$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed No | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed No | 77c | 122.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 29c | 94.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 182 | 51.6%94 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 52c | 84.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 45c | 78.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 38c | 78.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 56c | 65.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0891backed No | 53c | 54.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 57c | 51.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…abbabacked No | 56c | 48.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…f201backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 42.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 72c | 39.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 56c | 39.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…1c3dbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 45c | 33.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 289 | 50.9%147 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 55c | 25.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…0e37backed No | 56c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…f39dbacked No | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.