Premier League · resolved market
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe86dcc1713688eec004698cad3c41f8d042df35500cbf897ae5ffdbf8e964610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,550$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.45 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 65c | 715.3$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.04 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 663.77$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.35 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 77c | 519.87$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 74c | 424.62$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.62 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 79c | 360.33$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 346.78$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.58 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 76c | 328$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.69 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 25c | 234.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…2130backed Yes | 28c | 213.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 27c | 212.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 11c | 189$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…2337backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Yes | 75c | 170.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 31c | 166.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 31c | 151.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 28c | 102$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…c162backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…4b34backed No | 76c | 98.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed Yes | 26c | 87.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 85.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 297 | 35.4%105 W · 192 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Yes | 77c | 69.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 72c | 62.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 27c | 46.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…7ad5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked Yes | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Yes | 79c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…023ebacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Norwich City FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.