Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac92fde4b2d8b0931e7f00ae79ccfd51cde4ae510b7f17058b37a5f6c53af95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 321.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 286.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 9c | 262.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 80c | 235.56$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 215.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 205.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 184.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 182.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 26c | 140.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 135.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 23c | 118.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 104.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 102.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 95.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 21c | 91.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 85.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 37c | 78.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 39c | 72.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 59c | 69.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 70c | 67.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 65c | 67.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 65.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…8e49backed Yes | 29c | 61.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 57.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 41c | 57.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 43c | 54.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 53.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 49.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 49.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 63c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 38.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 45c | 38.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 35.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 69c | 33.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 76c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 71c | 27.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…307cbacked Yes | 42c | 24.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 24.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…6d95backed No | 74c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.