TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3288…b8cebacked No9c940.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.327728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes60c743.14$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.112729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No5c490.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes36c367.92$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes71c364.81$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9831442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No58c344.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.962,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c294.93$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No14c222.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1274926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes57c206.27$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.615,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c188.13$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.631,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c181.56$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.982,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed No28c180$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.811950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c161.95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.151,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c138.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.384,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No63c134.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3252155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee1b…5571backed Yes27c124.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.012821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0321…19fabacked Yes61c118.87$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes40c117.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.53836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c116.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes41c114.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes53c114.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7237644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes44c110.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3421142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c99.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes70c99.03$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.211362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No16c93.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.372,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes42c76.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.268531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c73.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.89,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed05…9368backed Yes56c67.19$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.561723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb938…c094backed Yes39c63.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.91728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No44c63.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0434057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c63.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.497,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c61.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.863,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No63c59.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6319753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes26c57.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x086d…01f7backed Yes46c57.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aae…e7a0backed Yes41c54.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.221145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+43.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70d3…2909backed Yes33c51.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.832825%7 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes36c49.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9611436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes31c48.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.36524.6%16 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c48.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No53c47.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes29c47.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.419059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9165…78aebacked Yes32c44.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No54c44.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0720958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No65c44.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9523349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x301f…2ddfbacked No70c44.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.121668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb903…f048backed Yes43c43.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No59c43.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.222,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes39c41.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.127912.7%10 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes55c40.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3486420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No41c40.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4493734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No59c39.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5933450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No62c38.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes39c38.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4142544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3096…3eb3backed No58c38.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c36.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.052,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No64c36.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b3…dc40backed No58c34.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.784245.2%19 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc831…a849backed Yes42c33.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+167.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes45c33.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.840242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes42c33.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.512740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No59c32.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.292,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb0…c1d7backed Yes44c32.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.02850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes55c32.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.511,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes39c30.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.966926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes35c30.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8826434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No63c30.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.773850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c28.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No76c27.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8414251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No57c26.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.171,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No54c23.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3944147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8be9…845fbacked No58c21.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.526063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked No64c20.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4751321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked No60c20.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2113215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No71c20.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.599361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbbb…6d95backed No74c19.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…2cbdbacked No57c18.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.584955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No67c17.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8428954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No70c16.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2426861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d4…e3e5backed No73c15.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.