Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe84b9b69e643fba23bfcf5511b9c054aef435bdf7de0a4ed3c75be5d1f5f441b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 337.41$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 280.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 268.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 227.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eff…37cebacked Yes | 18c | 217.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 209.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 14c | 196.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 12c | 179.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 162.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 160.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 13c | 158.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 146.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 130.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 14c | 128.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 113.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 12c | 112.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 12c | 98.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 96.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 13c | 91.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 63c | 84.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 23c | 82.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 14c | 81.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed No | 75c | 81.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 14c | 79.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 16c | 77.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 76.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 61c | 69.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…3eb3backed No | 57c | 67.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 79c | 59.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aae…e7a0backed Yes | 17c | 59.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…0333backed Yes | 22c | 54.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked No | 78c | 54.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 45c | 52.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 19c | 52.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…9e89backed Yes | 47c | 52.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 19c | 52.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 59c | 49.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 58c | 46.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 66c | 38.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 80c | 36.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 56c | 20.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.