Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5afc2c6ee5bb5b338065edca9c5e6797c6bd6d5376aff9ca29cea6ab89e20b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 595.96$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 287.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 56c | 229.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 33c | 171.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…c987backed Yes | 60c | 160.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 68c | 155.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 35c | 140.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 135.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 56c | 107.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 59c | 105.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 102.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 99.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 59c | 95.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 59c | 77.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 73.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 33c | 69.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 71c | 68.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 67.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 66.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 59.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 56c | 59.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 64c | 57.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 59c | 55.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 74c | 48.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 46.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…95f4backed Yes | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 43c | 44.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 49c | 43.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 44c | 42.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 33c | 42.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 49c | 39.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 33c | 38.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 37.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 36c | 35.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 77c | 32.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 58c | 29.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 74c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 49c | 28.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 47c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 51c | 26.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 43c | 24.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 50c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 56c | 19.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.